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Monday, December 21, 2015

Morning Report: Goldman predicting a March hike

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  2008.9 17.0 0.85%
Eurostoxx Index 3269.0 8.3 0.25%
Oil (WTI) 34.44 -0.3 -0.84%
LIBOR 0.586 0.016 2.81%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 98.64 -0.063 -0.06%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.19% -0.01%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.3
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.3
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.82

Stocks are up this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up small. 

We have a holiday shortened week, with markets closing early on Thursday. We do get some important data with the final revision to Q3 GDP, Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, the FHFA House Price Index, personal spending and income, and inflation. Basically a week's worth of data crammed into 3 days. 

Oil continues to fall, hitting $34.23 a barrel for WTI. 

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -.3 from - .17. 

Goldman is predicting a March rate hike - a "fairly easy path."  They anticipate growth will remain above trend and employment growth to be well above breakeven. Inflation will pick up as the the big swoon in oil from $100 to $50 will be a year old and won't be pushing down the inflation numbers. 

What deleveraging? Household debt rose to $14.1 trillion in Q3, according to the NY Fed. This is just off the high of $14.3 trillion in the third quarter of 2008. Auto debt and mortgages drove the increase. 

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