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Friday, April 10, 2015

Morning Report - GE exits financial services

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  2087.9 2.2 0.11%
Eurostoxx Index 3810.2 28.4 0.75%
Oil (WTI) 50.37 -0.4 -0.83%
LIBOR 0.271 -0.003 -0.93%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 99.58 0.422 0.43%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.93% -0.03%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 103 0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.5 0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.75

Stocks are higher this mornings on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.

Import prices fell .3% in March and are down 10.5% year over year. As we are seeing in the data elsewhere, the strong dollar is beginning to affect the economy. Q1 earnings will be interesting - how many multinationals will report weaker numbers due to weaker overseas demand. 

GE is ending its decades-long dalliance into financial services, by selling its lending business and real estate assets. GEFS basically has been a Old timers will remember when GE owned an investment bank - Kidder Peabody - which blew up in the 90s. Investors like the news - GE is up about 7% pre-open. 

Hillary Clinton announced she will announce her candidacy on Sunday, supposedly via Twitter. Are you ready?

Christine Lagarde of the IMF is warning that the financial markets could get bumpy when the Fed starts raising rates. Consider this: the Fed hiked rates in 94, 99, and 05. In the process, they blew up the MBS market (remember Orange County?), the stock market, and the real estate market. Asset prices are handicapping a 100% probability that the Fed can raise interest rates without any one blowing up. The Fed may in fact be able to stick the landing and exit ZIRP without a crisis, but that is not a foregone conclusion. The old market saw of "sell in May and go away" may turn out to be good advice this year. 

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