| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 2094.3 | 3.3 | 0.16% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 3731.0 | 11.6 | 0.31% |
| Oil (WTI) | 56.6 | 0.0 | -0.02% |
| LIBOR | 0.276 | 0.000 | 0.09% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 97.98 | -0.020 | -0.02% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.92% | 0.01% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 103.3 | -0.1 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 102.4 | -0.1 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 3.74 |
Stocks are up this morning as struggling Greek banks get a bit more breathing room. Bonds and MBS are down.
Mortgage Applications rose 2.3% last week, according to the MBA. Purchases were up 5% while refis were up .6% and accounted for 56% of all loans.
Existing Home Sales rebounded to 5.19 million in March, according to the National Association of Realtors. Inventory remains tight at roughly 4.6 months (6 months is considered "balanced"). The median home price was 212,100, which is 7.6% higher than a year ago. The first time homebuyer was 30% of all sales, which is starting to inch up. More inventory and more construction is needed to see these numbers improve. Cash sales as a percent dropped to 24% as professional investors exit and "real" buyers return.
The FHFA Home Price increased .7% in February, well above the .5% expectation. On a year-over-year basis, prices were up 5.4% and we are now within 3% of peak levels, which puts it roughly at January 2006 levels. If you take a look at the geographic returns, the West Coast is slowing down from its torrid pace in 2014, however it is still strong. The bright spot seems to be the turnaround in the Northeast, where home price appreciation is finally higher than the national average. For a long time, Southern California and New England have been polar opposites, with a red-hot market out west and an ice cold market in New England. The big Northeast judicial states appear to be finally cleaning out the inventory of foreclosed homes, which has been weighing on the market.
If you were wondering how Treasury views Fannie Mae stock, look no further. Senator Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa) sent a letter to Treasury asking how the government was going to treat Fannie Mae shareholders now that taxpayers have recouped their bailout funds. Treasury's response - that was not a "loan" that can be paid back - it was an "investment" that should earn a huge return given the risk that taxpayers took. In other words, this will come down to litigation between Fannie Mae shareholders and the government and Fannie Mae stock is a litigation lottery ticket.
The German Bund is the "short of a lifetime" according to Bill Gross. Separately, Paul Singer of Elliott Management characterized the sovereign debt bubble as on par with the subprime bubble. The Fed inflated the stock market bubble which subsequently burst, then inflated a residential real estate bubble to ease the pain of the burst stock market bubble, and then inflated a sovereign debt bubble to ease the pain of the burst residential real estate bubble. As I have said before, stock prices are pricing in a 100% probability that the Fed can raise rates with no one blowing up. Not sure that is a good bet. It also raises on more thing to think about - Hillary's most formidable opponent will not be the GOP candidate - it will be Janet Yellen.
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