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Thursday, January 22, 2015

Morning Report - Super Mario pleases the markets

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  2039.1 12.5 0.62%
Eurostoxx Index 3290.4 20.7 0.63%
Oil (WTI) 47.44 -0.3 -0.71%
LIBOR 0.257 0.001 0.20%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 93.39 0.481 0.52%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.83% -0.04%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 102.8 0.2
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.4 0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.84

Markets are higher this morning after the European Central Bank announced a 1.1 trilllion euro quantitative easing program. Bonds and MBS have been all over the map this morning, but are rallying at the moment.

The ECB QE program will consist of 60 billion euros a month, ending in September 2016. Draghi is walking a fine line here, trying to increase inflation and growth while at the same time mollify German voters that he is coming to the rescue of their Southern brethren. FWIW, I think Germany doth protest too much - their manufacturers have to love seeing the Euro get whacked. Such is the symbiotic relationship of the European monetary union - the profligate Southern European countries get to borrow at lower rates than they otherwise would, and the Northern European exporters get a depressed Euro which makes them more competitive. 

The formal announcement was very similar to what was leaked yesterday in terms of amount - 50 billion for 2 years vs 60 billion for 18 months. The markets were looking for something like 500 billion euros in QE, so it is an upside surprise. Bonds are rallying in Europe, with the German Bund challenging its lows of 42 basis points. US Treasuries are being taken along for the ride. 

Initial Jobless Claims fell to 307k, but are still the second week above 300k. Good numbers nonetheless. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index slipped to 44.7 from 45.4 last week. 

Home Prices rose .8% in November, higher than expected according to the FHFA. On a year-over-year basis, prices are up 5.3% and are within 4.5% of their April 2007 peak. On a seasonally adjusted basis, New England was negative while the West Coast was highly positive. Note that the FHFA Home Price Index only looks at houses with conforming mortgages, which makes it a subset of the overall real estate market. 

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