A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Morning Report - Good numbers out of KB Home

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  2036.0 13.6 0.67%
Eurostoxx Index 3133.4 49.2 1.60%
Oil (WTI) 45.4 -0.7 -1.45%
LIBOR 0.254 0.002 0.79%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 92.31 0.325 0.35%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.94% 0.03%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.4 -0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 105 0.0
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.87

Markets are higher this morning in sympathy with markets around the world. Bonds and MBS are down.

Alcoa kicked off earnings season with a better than expected result, however the stock is unch'd this morning...

Goldman decreased their price target for oil this quarter to $39 a barrel. Speculators are betting that supply will increase even more. 

Homebuilder KB Home reported earnings this morning... Orders were up 10%, and earnings beat on a massive tax benefit. Revenues rose 29%, and average selling prices rose 17%. That big jump was due mainly to a greater emphasis on Northern California and away from the Southwest. Gross margins contracted 60 basis points. The stock is up a few percent this morning. The conference call is at 11:30 am (877-269-7756 / 13596999) if you are interested in listening in. We will hear from Lennar later this week. 

The NFIB Small Business Optimism survey came in above par for December. This was the highest reading since October 2006. 100 is more or less "normalcy" since the index was created about 20 years ago. Employment was a pleasant surprise, with 54% of firms reporting hiring (or attempts to hire) however the pool of available candidates appears to be a poor fit, as 43% reported few or no qualified candidates for the position:  ("Qualified candidate" -  a candidate with the wisdom of someone in their fifties, the efficiency of someone in their forties, the drive of someone in their thirties and the paycheck of someone in their twenties)

Job Openings were more or less unchanged at 4.8 million in November, according to the JOLTS survey. This is a boom-time level, and is a leading indicator for the labor market. 

The IBD / TIPP Economic Optimism Index came in at 51.5 from 48.4. 

Good background article on Bill Gross's exit from PIMCO.




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