| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 2010.5 | 16.1 | 0.81% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 3051.1 | 43.2 | 1.43% |
| Oil (WTI) | 48.4 | 0.5 | 0.98% |
| LIBOR | 0.254 | -0.002 | -0.78% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 92.1 | 0.597 | 0.65% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.98% | 0.04% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 105.7 | -0.1 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 105.1 | -0.2 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 3.91 |
Markets are higher this morning as world equity markets recover and global bond markets take a breather. Bonds and MBS are down
Mortgage Applications rose 11.1% last week, with purchases rising 4.5% and refis increasing 16%. The refi index is bouncing back from a highly depressed Christmas week level, so don't break out the champagne quite yet. That said, the last time rates were around here, home prices were a lot lower. Cash out refis to pay down credit card debt and HELOCs will be attractive to many borrowers.
Was yesterday's intraday low of 1.88% on the 10 year a capitulation low? Not sure yet. Remember, the action is being driven by European economic weakness and the prospect of more QE at the ECB. We are just being taken along for the ride. Which means that this gift may be fleeting.
From the recent ISM and factory order data, it looks like things slowed down a bit in December. Do not look for another 5% print on Q4 GDP - most strategists are looking at a growth rate in the mid 2s.
The ADP employment survey reports that 241k jobs were created in December, more or less in line with the Street expectations for Friday's payroll number. I am hearing anecdotally that the normal seasonal (post-holiday) layoffs are not happening this year as employers hold on to people in anticipation of growth. Remember, the number to watch on Friday is average weekly earnings - that is the most important number.
CoreLogic is forecasting home sales will increase 9% in 2015, housing starts will increase 14% and home price appreciation will moderate...The big story? Employment growth in the Millennial age cohort, which will herald the return of the first time homebuyer.
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