| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 2053.4 | -4.1 | -0.20% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 3175.8 | 13.1 | 0.41% |
| Oil (WTI) | 62.33 | -1.5 | -2.33% |
| LIBOR | 0.238 | 0.002 | 0.85% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 88.57 | -0.116 | -0.13% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.21% | 0.00% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 104.7 | -0.1 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 103.9 | -0.1 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.13 |
Markets are weaker this morning as oil (and oil stocks) continue to fall. WTI is trading at $62.20 after OPEC revised its 2015 forecast. Bonds and MBS are flat.
Mortgage Applications rose 7.3% last week. Purchases were up 1.3% while refis were up 13.2%. Don't bust out the champagne quite yet, we are still basically bumping along the bottom.
Luxury builder Toll Brothers reported 4th quarter and full year results this morning. Deliveries rose 29% in dollars and 22% in units, but it looks like the torrid increase in average selling prices has passed and they are beginning to moderate. ASPs rose 6% YOY to $747k. Price appreciation for signed contracts was even less - around 3.6%. Backlog was up 3% in dollars and flat in units.
Robert Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers made a point I have been making for a long time - housing starts are still way below historical averages: "We believe the housing recovery has many years to run. Housing starts, through ups and downs from 1970-2007, have averaged about 1.6 million annually. According to Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies, 'Despite the rebound in the last two years, home sales and starts are still nowhere near normal levels. This was the sixth consecutive year that starts failed to hit the one million mark, [which was] unprecedented before 2008 in records dating back to 1959."
Obviously the recovery to normalcy depends on the first time homebuyer. Consistent rental inflation is pushing them to consider home ownership as an alternative. The NAHB is praising Fannie and Freddie for re-introducing the 3% downpayment loans.
Transunion forecasts mortgage delinquency rates to hit pre-recession levels in 2015.
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