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Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Morning Report - Awaiting the FOMC....

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1970.6 5.5 0.28%
Eurostoxx Index 3017.4 -32.6 -1.07%
Oil (WTI) 54.7 -1.2 -2.20%
LIBOR 0.243 0.000 -0.10%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 88.19 0.065 0.07%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.08% 0.02%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.8 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.3 -0.1
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.04

Markets are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down.

Oil continues to fall, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate now down below $55 a barrel. This is putting pressure on prices. The Consumer Price Index fell .3% in November. Ex food and energy, it rose .1%. Will be interesting to see how the Fed addresses (if at all) falling energy prices in the FOMC statement. 

Mortgage Applications fell 3.3% last week. Purchases were down 6.9% while refis were flat. 

The FOMC will announce their decision at 2:00 pm. Expect volatility around that time and after as the press conference starts. 

"A considerable time." Sounds like a novel. Anyway, that is the phrase that will be the focus of the Fed statement. Will the Fed drop the language that states that rates will remain near zero for a "considerable time?" The new expected buzzword? Patience. Given how far bonds have moved to the upside already I don't know how much a dovish statement will move them further. If anything the risks are on the downside.

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