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Thursday, December 11, 2014

Morning Report - looks like we have a budget deal

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  2035.7 9.3 0.46%
Eurostoxx Index 3145.5 -5.5 -0.17%
Oil (WTI) 60.23 -0.7 -1.17%
LIBOR 0.239 0.001 0.53%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 88.4 0.130 0.15%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.18% 0.02%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.9 0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104 0.0
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.07

Stocks are higher this morning after initial jobless claims and retail sales surprised tot he upside. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Initial Jobless Claims fell slightly to 294k last week. We have been consistently hitting under 300k for a while, which is a very bullish sign. Companies may not be raising wages yet, but they are holding on to the people they have. 

Retail Sales increased .7% in November, well above the .4% Street estimate. October was revised upward Ex autos and gas, sales rose .7%. Lower gasoline prices are providing a bit of an economic dividend

Congress looks like they have circled around a spending bill to keep the government open for the near term. The left (led by Elizabeth Warren) is complaining about the bill. The Department of Homeland Security is funded only through February, which will give Republicans a chance to wrangle with Obama on the issue of his immigration executive order. There are also some relaxations to Dodd-Frank, and the left is apopleptic about that. The changes would allow FDIC institutions to use derivatives to hedge their own currency and f/x risk and would relax margin requirements for non-banks that use derivatives to hedge (like airlines hedging their fuel costs, for example). That said, it looks like the left will lose this battle. 

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