| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 2034.6 | 26.4 | 1.31% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 3127.7 | 75.7 | 2.48% |
| Oil (WTI) | 57.32 | 0.9 | 1.51% |
| LIBOR | 0.243 | 0.000 | 0.00% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 89.38 | 0.243 | 0.27% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.20% | 0.07% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 104.8 | -0.1 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 104 | -0.2 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.07 |
Stocks are continuing yesterday's Fed-driven melt-up. Bonds and MBS are down hard. That window where rates were around 2.05% did not last long.
As advertised, the FOMC statement basically substituted "patience" for "a considerable time." That said, it still contained the "considerable time" language, but referred to it in the past tense. Probably the biggest surprise was their downward forecast for 2015 inflation to a range of 1% - 1.6%. Their September forecast was 1.6% to 1.9%. They also took down their 2015 unemployment forecast to 5.25% from 5.5% in September. The Street seems comfortable that rates are going up in the second half of 2015.
Initial Jobless Claims fell to 289k last week, and we have been solidly below 300k for quite some time. The leading indicators have been strong for a while, however we have not been seeing the wage growth. That said, I am seeing anecdotal evidence that wage inflation might be be around the corner. At lunch I noticed the "help wanted" placard had taped over the starting salaries and increased them by a buck an hour. Sample size of 1, of course, but still...
The Markit US PMI came in weaker than expectations. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index ticked up to 41.7 from 41.3 last week. The Philly Fed Index fell from 40.8 to 24.5 and the Index of Leading Economic Indicators was flat at .6%.
Obama moved to normalize relations with Cuba yesterday. Lifting the trade sanctions requires Congressional approval, so I don't know how this impacts your humidor quite yet.
The feds are going after Ocwen again, this time for dragging their feet in short sales.
Mortgage lenders are worrying more about lackluster demand impacting margins, according to the latest Fannie Mae Lender Sentiment Survey. The biggest headache remains regulatory, of course. Lenders anticipate a modest housing expansion in 2015. It seems like the homebuilders agree. It is all going to hinge on the return of the first time homebuyer.
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