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Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Morning Report - Mel Watt speaks next week

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1872.8 -3.0 -0.16%
Eurostoxx Index 3145.6 -25.7 -0.81%
Oil (WTI) 99.57 0.1 0.09%
LIBOR 0.225 0.002 0.90%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.08 -0.402 -0.51%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.59% -0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106.1 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 105.1 0.1
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.35

Markets are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.

Interesting take on why interest rates are holding firm even in the face of stronger economic data. New rules intended to bolster pension funds may have just created $300 billion in extra demand over the next two years. Given that there are only $642 billion of 10 year + treasuries outstanding, this is a lot of incremental demand. This would partially explain why interest rates have largely shaken off the Fed's tapering. 

The latest Black Knight (formerly known as Lender Processing Services) mortgage monitor is out. Delinquencies and foreclosures continue to decline. As we have seen in other data, home price appreciation has been much higher in the non-judicial states than the judicial ones. 

Mel Watt is due to speak on May 13, and he may signal a pause in reducing the government's footprint in the mortgage market - a break from the policy of his predecessor, Ed DeMarco. Expect to see easier credit standards at Fannie, Freddie, and Ginnie. There is concern in government circles regarding affordability, especially for the first time homebuyer. Note that D.R. Horton emphasized the need for government intervention to help first time homebuyers. 

The government came out with a study showing that global warming is currently costing the economy billions of dollars. This study was basically done at the WH's behest, so take it with a grain of salt. obama will be trumpeting the study today in an effort to whip up the base for the 2014 midterms. 

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