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Monday, May 5, 2014

Morning Report - China continues to slow down

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1867.0 -7.4 -0.39%
Eurostoxx Index 3136.3 -41.6 -1.31%
Oil (WTI) 100.1 0.4 0.38%
LIBOR 0.223 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.49 -0.022 -0.03%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.58% -0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106.2 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 105.2 0.0
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.4

Stocks are down after Chinese PMI came in light and showed contraction in the manufacturing sector for the fourth month in a row. Bonds and MBS are rallying.

What is going on in the bond market? Bonds seem to be factoring in a global slowdown as China decelerates and the US slows. This has pushed yields to the lowest level since early February and puts it at the bottom of the tight 2.56% - 2.8% trading range we have experienced since then. I wouldn't bet on this continuing, so if you had any borrowers who were waiting for lower rates, wake them up.

Chart: 10 year yield:


This week promises to be dull on the economic front, as the week following the jobs report usually is. Don't expect any market-moving releases this week. Earnings season continues, and we will hear from mortgage REIT giant Annaly Capital. During their fourth quarter earnings conference call, Annaly said they intended to build up their balance sheet and increase their portfolio of agency MBS. Based on the chart above, that was a good call. 



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