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Friday, May 2, 2014

Morning Report - good payroll numbers, but labor force participation rate drops

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1881.2 3.5 0.19%
Eurostoxx Index 3188.2 -10.5 -0.33%
Oil (WTI) 99.85 0.4 0.43%
LIBOR 0.223 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.8 0.269 0.34%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.68% 0.07%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.8 -0.3
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.6 -0.3
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.24

Markets are higher this morning after a strong jobs report. Bonds and MBS down

Nonfarm payrolls increased 288k in April and the prior two month net revision was 36k. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3% as the labor force participation rate fell to 62.8%. Average hourly earnings and average weekly hours were flat. So, all in all a set of good numbers, though it is disappointing to see the labor force participation rate still stuck at multi-decade lows - Q178 to be exact.

Pfizer sweetened its bid for UK-based AstraZeneca. The reason why Pfizer wants AstraZeneca is not so much the pipeline, but the tax rate. The combined company would be a corporate resident of the UK and pay lower taxes there. 

Yesterday's weak construction spending data caused some revisions in Q1 GDP. Barclay's took their estimate down to -.2%. IMO, a negative Q1 GDP estimate seems at odds with the other data out there. 

The government is bent on putting payday lenders out of business. Not by regulating them, or passing a law abolishing them, but by leaning on the banks and forcing them to stop doing business with them. The government is also going after other unsavory, but completely legal, businesses like porn, internet gambling, and drug paraphernalia  in the same way. obama has a pen and a phone and isn't afraid to use it.

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