| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1911.2 | 2.1 | 0.11% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 3240.5 | -5.7 | -0.18% |
| Oil (WTI) | 102.9 | 0.2 | 0.19% |
| LIBOR | 0.227 | 0.000 | -0.11% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 80.45 | -0.121 | -0.15% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.44% | 0.00% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 106.8 | 0.0 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 106 | 0.1 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.13 |
Markets are down small after some disappointing consumption data this morning. Bonds are taking a breather and are down small.
Personal Incomes rose .3% in April, while spending fell .1%. Inflation remains in check. The income number was in line with Street expectations, while the spending number was not. March's spending number was revised upward from .9% to 1.0%. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence ticked up slightly to 81.9, although it came in lower than expectations.
The ISM Milwaukee report leaped to 63.5 from 47.3 a month ago, while the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index increased from 63 to 65.5. These numbers beat expectations handily. April has had some very divergent economic indicators, with the weak industrial data points to some of these other strong indicators.
Refis dropped to 37% of all closed loans in April, according to Ellie Mae. Average FICOs ticked up a point to 726. Average days to close a loan fell to 39.
With rates falling over the past month or two, where are we going to get a wave of refis? The conventional wisdom is 4% mortgage rates. Remember, however the concept of prepayment burnout, which means that each successive dip in rates has less of an effect on refinance activity, mainly because the pool of people with a refinancable mortgage shrinks. That said, home price appreciation is counteracting that effect as people who were underwater last year and unable to refinance are able to take advantage of it this time around.
More speculation on what is going on in the bond market. Interestingly, according to Commitment of Traders data, speccies are increasing short exposure - the bears are fading the rally, not capitulating. Interestingly, the Fed's balance sheet actually shrunk over the past week - not by a lot - but still it is surprising. At the end of the day, absent some sort of valid technical explanation of the strength, you have to believe the stock market is telling you one thing and the bond market is telling you another.
Finally, iServe will be sponsoring a free National VA Financing Webinar on Tuesday, June 24th at 10:00 AM Pacific. The purpose of the webinar is to educate real estate and financial industry professionals about the VA financing option. Deputy Undersecretary of the VA Keith Pedigo will be speaking, along with iServe's Director of Government Lending, John McDade.
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