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Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Morning Report - Tight inventory continues in California

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1692.1 0.9 0.05%
Eurostoxx Index 2888.0 -6.7 -0.23%
Oil (WTI) 105.9 -0.7 -0.64%
LIBOR 0.252 0.000 0.04%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.15 -0.146 -0.18%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.83% -0.03%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.1 0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.1 0.2
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.53

Markets are flattish as we head into Day 1 of the FOMC meeting. We should get the actual announcement tomorrow around 2:15 pm. Bonds and MBS are rallying as the market continues to digest the fact that Summers won't be the next Fed Chairman.

The Consumer Price Index came in at .1% month-over-month, below expectations, and frankly below what the Fed would like to see. As long as (a) there are no bubbles and (b) there is no inflation, the Fed will likely try and err on the side of accommodation.

That said, I believe this reprieve we have been given in rates will be short-lived. Don't lose the forest for the trees - rates are going up, and if you have any borrowers who have been on the fence or who were floating, now is a good time to lock. 

The California Association of Realtors reported that increasing mortgage rates are starting to bite as activity slipped 2%. Prices are still increasing though, as the median home price hit $441k, the highest since Dec 2007. Inventory is improving in the sub 750k bucket, although month's supply is still extremely low at just about 3 months. 


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