A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Morning Report - deeply underwater homes down 14.5% year over year.

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1655.4 2.0 0.12%
Eurostoxx Index 2764.4 6.1 0.22%
Oil (WTI) 107.8 0.6 0.56%
LIBOR 0.258 -0.001 -0.35%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.18 0.012 0.01%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.92% 0.03%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 103.1 -0.5
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102 -0.2
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.56

Markets are higher this morning after the ADP jobs report predicted 176 private sector jobs were created in August and initial jobless claims came in at 323k. Productivity was higher, while unit labor costs fell. Bonds and MBS are down small.

RealtyTrac is reporting that 10.7 million homeowners are deeply underwater (LTV > 125%), which represents 23% of properties with a mortgage. This number is down from 12.5 million (or 28%) a year ago. Another 8.3 million are in the 90 - 110 LTV range, and if real estate prices continue their recent appreciation, this could bring the supply / demand dynamics back into equilibrium as these homes gain equity and become available for sale. Lack of inventory has been a problem in the market and has been distorting some of the repeat-sales indices as professionals and cash buyers compete for the few homes that are available. Needless to say, this is welcome news for originators as it would boost purchase activity as refis dry up. 

Washington Post has a quick and dirty on what a Summers Fed would look like. Punch line: not a lot different than a Bernanke Fed, at least as far as policy is concerned. So far, it looks like Summers is Obama's first choice.

Yesterday's Fed Beige Book didn't have much new to say. Eight districts reported moderate growth while 5 reported modest growth. Residential real estate activity increased moderately, while lending activity was mixed. Lending standards were largely unchanged, while credit quality improved. Hiring and wages increased modestly. 




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