A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Monday, September 16, 2013

Morning Report, Summers out, ushering in the third term of Alan Greenspan

Vital Statistics

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1688.6 3.7 0.22%
Eurostoxx Index 2893.2 26.1 0.91%
Oil (WTI) 106.2 -2.0 -1.86%
LIBOR 0.252 -0.002 -0.81%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81 -0.449 -0.55%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.79% -0.10%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 103.8 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.3 0.7
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.57

Markets are higher after Larry Summers withdrew his name from consideration for the Fed Chairmanship. Bonds and MBS are rallying hard, with the 10 year yield down 10 basis points.

Janet Yellen is a Greenspan clone, as is Bernanke. Summers would have ended QE a bit earlier than Yellen would have. I have to say I am skeptical of the 10 year here at 2.79%. If you wanted to refi and missed the boat, the market just let you back in. I would take advantage of it, because the secular story on bonds is unchanged. LO's should go back and contact their borrowers who are on the fence and let them know they just got a gift that won't last forever.

Does this change what the Fed will do on Tuesday and Wed?  Probably not. The consensus seems to be a taper of $10 billion a month, which will be Treasuries and not MBS. 

We have some industrial numbers today, with the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and Manufacturing Production. Later this week, we will get housing starts, building permits, and existing home sales. All important data for us.

The CFPB made some changes to the QM rule.  Here is a summary.



No comments:

Post a Comment