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Monday, September 23, 2013

Morning Report - People don't understand HARP

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1699.3 -3.1 -0.18%
Eurostoxx Index 2914.4 -12.8 -0.44%
Oil (WTI) 104.5 -0.3 -0.24%
LIBOR 0.251 0.001 0.40%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.39 -0.038 -0.05%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.73% 0.00%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.8 0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.9 0.0
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.42

Markets are lower as they start to worry about the machinations over the debt ceiling and the continuing resolution. Bonds and MBS are more or less flat.

We will have lots of relevant data this week, with Case-Shiller and the FHFA Home Price Index on Tuesday, Lennar and KB Home earnings on Tuesday as well, and the third revision to 2Q GDP on Thursday. Note the Fed took down 2013 GDP projections by 30 basis points in its economic forecast, so maybe they know the revision is going to be bad. The Street is at 2.6%. Don't forget Q1 GDP started at something like 2.5% and was revised downward to 1.1%. 

The tea party wing of the Republican Party is demanding that obamacare be delayed or de-funded as a condition to raising the debt ceiling. Needless to say, this is going nowhere in a Democratically controlled Senate and won't be signed by the author either. The continuing resolution will be the first hurdle, and Republicans do have something to protect in that it keeps sequestration-level spending in place. The debt ceiling is a messier affair, but Republican leadership is dead-set against defaulting on the debt, so this will get passed one way or the other, but it may cost Boehner his speakership if he passes an increase in the debt ceiling by relying on Democratic votes.

The FHFA is trying to figure out why eligible borrowers are not taking advantage of HARP. There seems to be this perception that you have to be delinquent to take advantage of it, which is false. LO's take note.

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