A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Morning Report - Slow news day

Vital statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1664.6 0.0 0.00%
Eurostoxx Index 2811.6 -12.9 -0.46%
Oil (WTI) 96.49 -0.2 -0.23%
LIBOR 0.274 0.001 0.37%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 84.03 0.294 0.35%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.96% 0.00%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 103.7 -0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.3 -0.1
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 198.8 0.6
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.67

Perfectly flat - the S&P 500 futures that is.  Perfect description of today, with no economic data. Bonds and MBS?  More or less flat as well.

Tangentially related to housing and the mortgage business - the Despot beat earnings.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index showed manufacturing activity decelerated in April. The 3 month moving average is more or less flat, indicating we are growing exactly on trend. For once, employment was the bright spot of the report.

Is credit finally starting to loosen up? One clue is found in the Professional Risk Managers' International Association survey of risk managers. In home delinquencies, the vast majority expect delinquencies to stay the same or fall, but almost 40% expect them to fall. Less credit headaches gives banks the leeway to go out further on the risk curve. Another indication can be found in the latest Ellie Mae Origination Insight Report, where the average FICO score for a closed loan has fallen from 750 in November 2012 to 742 in April. The big question is whether originators are going to be willing to step out of the QM box, or will the landscape continue to be pristine jumbo loans and conforming / ginnie loans?

With the IRS scandal gaining steam, Obama got his "look, a squirrel" gift, at least momentarily. A new Senate report shows Apple's international arm paid no income taxes to anyone.

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