A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Morning Report - Housing Scorecard

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1631.8 1.0 0.06%
Eurostoxx Index 2778.9 1.5 0.05%
Oil (WTI) 94.59 -0.6 -0.61%
LIBOR 0.274 -0.001 -0.36%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 83.34 0.065 0.08%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.91% -0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.9 -0.2
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103 0.1
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 196.6 0.4
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.62

Markets are flattish this morning on no real news. Appalloosa manager David Tepper said on CNBC that he is still bullish and the economy is getting better. Bonds finally catch a bid after a pretty brutal two week sell-off. MBS are up small.

The National Federation of Independent Business released their Small Business Optimism Survey this morning, which showed the index creeping up slightly to 92.1 from 90.7. Owners are still pessimistic about the economy, with a net negative 15% expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months. Hiring and raises are being done only grudgingly, and capital expenditures are only at maintenance levels. Yet the stock market is at record highs. So what gives? Part of it is that the big S&P 500 stocks have a lot of international exposure, which means they can offset US weakness elsewhere. Also, I think quantitative easing is playing a part.

The Obama Administration released their monthly Housing Scorecard which showed home equity increased again last month. HAMP trial modifications jumped, while HAMP permanent mods fell. HARP refis were flat for the month. It is still looking like Mel Watt as the new FHFA Chairman is no sure thing, either. Even if he doesn't get nominated, HARP 3.0 might still happen, which would extend the eligibility dates for HARP refis to include late 2009 and 2010 vintages. That would undoubtedly kick off another refi wave.

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