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Monday, May 21, 2012

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1296.5 5.7 0.44%
Eurostoxx Index 2146.8 2.1 0.10%
Oil (WTI) 91.62 0.1 0.15%
LIBOR 0.467 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.26 -0.036 -0.04%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.73% 0.01%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 175.6 0.0  


Markets are generally firmer this morning on comments from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao supporting further measures to boost the economy. Euro sovereign sovereign spreads are a touch wider. Bonds and MBS are down.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose .11 in April after falling .44 in March. This basically means that the economy is growing at its historical trend. Anything between -.7 and +.7 is considered on trend. Production was a positive factor, while consumption was negative. Employment was neutral.

Is the Fed more optimistic about future growth than Wall Street?  It appears to be the case. The average Wall Street growth forecast for 2012 is 2.3%, while the Fed is forecasting 2.4% - 2.9% growth. One explanation is that the Fed underestimates how much the credit-multiplier breaks down in the aftermath of asset bubbles. Meanwhile, the TIPS market is trimming its inflation forecast and giving Ben Bernake the room to maneuver.

Facebook has broken the IPO price in the pre-open and is trading at 36.51.  5.6 million shares have traded. Bob Griefeld, CEO of NASDAQ, blamed software glitches for the problems with trading FB on Friday where customer sell orders were delayed on the open.


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