A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Monday, May 14, 2012

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:


Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1340.2 -9.8 -0.73%
Eurostoxx Index 2199.2 -55.4 -2.46%
Oil (WTI) 94.47 -1.7 -1.73%
LIBOR 0.466 -0.001 -0.21%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.51 0.248 0.31%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.78% -0.05%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 175.3 0.0


A sloppy start to the week as sovereign spreads widen in Europe. Greek sovereign debt is now trading at a 27.4% yield, which is the same level as last Nov. Don't forget, this is the post-reorg debt - for those keeping score at home, Greek sovereigns were at 15% last year at this time, rose to over 40%, did a restructuring two months ago which pushed yields down to 17%, and now they are 27%. Spanish yields are rising, and it is time to start paying attention to the credit default swaps on the big European banks - Dexia is considered one of the worst cases, and is trading at the 17.75% level.

All of the stress in Europe is pushing down Treasury yields which sit about 10 basis points above September's lows. MBS are higher as well, with the Fannie and Ginnie 3.5s up 6 ticks. This is putting pressure on oil and the Euro. The S&P futures are suggesting that the 200 day moving average is going to get broken on the open.

It is official - Ally's Residential Capital has filed for bankruptcy protection. This move separates the auto loan and banking business, and should pave the way for the government to divest its 74% stake. Ally is providing the $150MM DIP and is kicking in $750MM.

It looks like 3 executives from JP Morgan will walk the plank over the $2 billion "hedging" loss in their Chief Investment Office unit. Jamie Dimon is not resigning, at least not yet. It is surprising that JP Morgan disclosed the loss before it fully exited the position - if disclosure rules forced his hand, that is a big unintended consequence. This episode will undoubtedly elicit calls for more regulation, and strengthens the view in Washington that there is no alpha in banking, just beta.

Chart: Greek 10 year bond yield:

No comments:

Post a Comment