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Thursday, May 17, 2012

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:


Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1319.6 -2.8 -0.21%
Eurostoxx Index 2140.4 -35.0 -1.61%
Oil (WTI) 93.04 0.2 0.25%
LIBOR 0.467 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.59 0.218 0.27%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.76% 0.00%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 175.6 0.1  


Markets are lower this morning on a report in the Spanish press that Moody's will downgrade the Spanish banks today and the continuing stand-off between the ECB and the Greek banks. The Spanish IBEX stock exchange is down 24% for the year and is at 9 year lows. Despite the headlines, Euro sovereign yields are flat / lower.

Initial Jobless claims came it at 370k, in line with expectations and we have good earnings from Wal-Mart and Sears. Later today, we will get Philly Fed. Bonds and MBS are up slightly.

Facebook prices tonight and should start trading tomorrow. Barry Ritholtz weighs in. David Einhorn took aim at AMZN at the Ira Sohn conference. His comments could have come from a Alan Abelson column in 1999. I expect to hear a lot of the same "you don't get it" arguments on FB that we heard on AMZN back then.

The minutes of the April FOMC meeting were released yesterday afternoon. They note the possibility of "taxmageddon" - the expiration of the Bush tax cuts - as a sizeable risk to the economy. While they note the size of the shadow inventory and tight lending standards, they believe real estate prices have stabilized. Overall, there seem to be no major changes in this statement - the Fed remains open to QEIII should economic conditions warrant.

Ellie Mae released their latest Origination Insight Report. Ellie Mae provides loan processing software and handles about 20% of US mortgage loan origination. Typical profile of a denied loan?  702 FICO / 87 LTV / DTI 28/43.  Talk about a tight mortgage market.

The problem with having a London Whale is that you have thousands of Ahabs shooting harpoons at you once you disclose you are in trouble with an oversized position. Dealbook is estimating that JP Morgan's trading losses have increased from $2 billion to $3 billion in the last 4 days as every wise-guy hedge fund manager that missed the initial trade puts it on.

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