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Thursday, March 24, 2016

Morning Report: Lenders are getting more cautious easing credit

Vital Statistics:

LastChangePercent
S&P Futures 2040.1-9.2-0.51%
Eurostoxx Index3016.5-45.5-1.49%
Oil (WTI)39.010.51.43%
LIBOR0.6420.0020.38%
US Dollar Index (DXY)95.03-0.860-0.90%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield1.89%-0.02%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA105.4
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA104.5
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage3.70

Stocks are under pressure this morning as commodities drop. Bonds and MBS are up small.

Initial Jobless Claims rose to 265k last week while the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index ticked up to 44.6

Durable Goods Orders fell 1.8% last month, slightly better than expectations, but when you strip out transportation, the number was a huge miss. Capital Goods orders (a proxy for business capital expenditures) fell 1.8% missing by a country mile. 

In other economic data, the Markit PMI numbers were barely expansionary and the Kansas City Fed improved slightly, but is still negative. 

Mel Watt is going to have a decision on principal mods for conforming loans held by the government within the next 30 days. The left has been pushing FHFA to do this for years. Why the (expected) change? Probably the FHFA House Price index, which has now recouped all of its losses from the bubble years. HARP may go away as well - FHFA is toying with the idea of a high-LTV refi. 


Cash sales are at their lowest level in 7 years, according to CoreLogic. In 2015, they accounted for 34% of all sales. The peak was January 2011 when they hit 47%. Pre-crisis, that number was in the high 20s. Unsurprisingly, the states with the highest foreclosure pipeline and the lousiest real estate markets have the highest cash sales percentages.


Mortgage lenders are on net still easing credit standards, however they are doing it at a slower pace, according to the latest Fannie Mae Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey.Government loans actually were tightened.



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