A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Morning Report: D.R. Horton's bet on the first time homebuyer is paying off

Vital Statistics:

LastChangePercent
S&P Futures 1888.09.0-0.85%
Eurostoxx Index3024.680.72.74%
Oil (WTI)30.460.10.12%
LIBOR0.621-0.003-0.48%
US Dollar Index (DXY)99.340.2790.28%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield2.01%0.02%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA104.7
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA104
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage3.71

Stocks are higher this morning in spite of another down 7% day in China overnight. Bonds and MBS are flat

House prices continue to rise, according to the FHFA House Price Index and Case-Shiller. The FHFA House Price index rose 0.5% MOM, while Case-Shiller rose .94%. The Case-Shiller index is up 5.83% YOY. The FHFA House Price Index has recouped all its post-bubble losses. 

In other economic data, the Richmond Fed Index slipped while consumer confidence increased. 

The Fed starts their 2 day FOMC meeting today. The decision is expected tomorrow at 2:00 PM EST. 

Homebuilder D.R. Horton reported earnings yesterday and met Street expectations. Orders increased 9% in units and 12% in value. Backlog is up 15% at 10,665 homes. The company is “Well-positioned” for spring selling season, FY 2016, given backlog, “positive sales trends” in Jan., “robust” lot supply, inventory of homes available for sale according to Donald R. Horton, chairman of DHI. Their new brand for first time homebuyers - Horton Express - accounted for 22% of sales last quarter. 

D.R Horton said that the Houston market was softening as oil continues to fall. State-by-state employment figures show that the collapse in oil prices is now being felt in the fracking states.

Foreign money helped prop up the ultra-luxury sector of the real estate market and now they pulling back. Prices are stagnating and homes are not moving. Blame the stock sell-off in China, and the oil price collapse which is hurting Middle Eastern and Russian investors. 


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