A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Morning Report: Larry Summers warns about further rate hikes

Vital Statistics:


LastChangePercent
S&P Futures 19294.70.27%
Eurostoxx Index3101.416.70.54%
Oil (WTI)30.360.2-2.57%
LIBOR0.620.0030.49%
US Dollar Index (DXY)98.930.7090.72%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield2.11%-0.01%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA104.4
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA103.7
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage3.83


Markets are higher this morning as oil rebounds a little. Bonds and MBS are up.

Mortgage Applications rose 21% last week as purchases rose 18% and refis rose 24%.

New regulations may require banks to raise up to $550 billion in the bond market by 2019. The bonds will be part of a package that are designed to prevent another 2008 from happening. They will be senior unsecured debt that converts to equity when a bank becomes insolvent. The new regs are open for comment and the ABA is working hard to lower the amount. I have trouble imagining the type of investor that would buy half a trillion of this stuff.

China's troubles are further evidence that whenever a country appears to have "cracked the code" for seemingly perpetual growth, a real estate bubble is usually the culprit. And it always ends badly.

Larry Summers is warning the Fed that the global economy cannot withstand 4 rate hikes this year. The bond market rally is saying the same thing. Since the Fed hiked rates on Dec 16, the 10 year bond yield has fallen 20 basis points.

Boston Fed Chairman Rosengren is also warning about further growth and the effect that overseas weakness will have on the US economy.

The US is starting to require title companies to identify the people who pay cash for properties in NYC and Miami. 

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