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Thursday, September 24, 2015

Morning Report: New Home Sales come in strong

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1913.5 -15.1 -0.78%
Eurostoxx Index 3027.5 -52.5 -1.71%
Oil (WTI) 44.22 -0.3 -0.58%
LIBOR 0.327 0.001 0.15%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 95.74 -0.327 -0.34%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.09% -0.06%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.2 -0.2
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.2 0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.78

Markets are lower this morning after Caterpillar warned and announced it will cut 5,000 jobs. Bonds and MBS are up.

New Home Sales rose to an annualized 552k in August, which easily beat expectations. While new home sales have more than doubled from their early 2011 lows, we are still well below what could be considered "normalcy."



Durable Goods orders fell 2% in August, coming in better than estimates. Capital Goods Orders (a proxy for business capital expenditures) fell 0.2% versus expectations of 0.5%. 

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index slipped in August from 0.51 to -.41. This index has had one positive reading all year. 

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 267k. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to 41.9.

Builder KB Home reported better than expected earnings this morning but disappointed on orders. Orders were up 19% to 2,167 units. Backlog increased 36%. Average selling prices rose 9% to $357.2k from $327k. The stock is down about half a buck on the open. 

Holiday retail sales are expected to increase 3.5% - 4% this year, a deceleration from last year's 5% pace. Given all the somewhat weak data, Q3 and Q4 GDP are looking a little soggy. Yet another excuse for the Fed to stand pat. 

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