A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Monday, August 17, 2015

Morning Report: A disappointing Empire State Manufacturing report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  2081.4 -8.0 -0.38%
Eurostoxx Index 3471.0 -20.1 -0.57%
Oil (WTI) 41.84 -0.7 -1.55%
LIBOR 0.324 0.004 1.23%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 96.6 0.084 0.09%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.15% -0.04%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.1 -0.2
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.4 -0.1
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.9

Markets are lower after a bad reading on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Bonds and MBS are up.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey hit a 6 year low, as it tumbled from 3.9 to -15. This is generally not a market-moving index and it can be volatile, but given the dearth of things to trade on this morning, this is what people are focusing on. 

Homebuilder sentiment rose from 60 to 61 in July, according to the NAHB. 

The highlight of the week will be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Bloomberg has a helpful primer on how to read them

Oil has dropped below $42 a barrel and is back at 6 year lows. Interestingly, the consumer sentiment indices seem to have decoupled from oil prices. We saw that in the falling University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey last week. Oil's drop may appear to be a momentum trade, although speccies are still net long

Meanwhile in politics, Donald Trump remains the Republican headache that won't go away, and the email crisis remains the Democratic headache that won't go away. Bill and Obama went golfing over the weekend, so the fix is presumably in. That said, the Administration has thrown the book at every low-level type who mishandled classified info.


No comments:

Post a Comment