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Friday, May 8, 2015

Morning Report - Jobs report data dump

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  2102.5 18.3 0.88%
Eurostoxx Index 3609.4 53.2 1.50%
Oil (WTI) 59.41 0.5 0.80%
LIBOR 0.276 0.000 0.04%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 94.6 -0.031 -0.03%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.13% -0.05%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 102.2 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 101.4 0.3
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.9

Stocks are higher this morning after the jobs report. Bonds and MBS are up big. European sovereign debt is rallying hard this morning. 

Jobs report data dump:
  • Nonfarm payrolls 223k
  • two month payroll revision -39
  • March payrolls revised to 85k from 126k
  • Unemployment rate 5.4%
  • Average Hourly earnings +.1%
  • Labor Force Participation rate 62.8%
Overall, the report isn't bad, and it had something for everyone to like. Stocks liked the unemployment rate and the fact that payrolls rebounded in April, while bonds could hang their hat on the weak hourly earnings number. 

Wellington Denahan, CEO of mortgage REIT Annaly Capital had some criticism of the Fed and the effects of QE. Money quote: "Since 2009 when the experiment began, global bond markets have increased in value by roughly $17 trillion, or the size of the U.S. economy, while global equity markets have increased in value by a staggering $40 trillion. Yet the American wage earners have gained a relatively paltry $722 billion in comparison during the same period. Or to put it more clearly, for every dollar gained by the American worker, the global equity markets have the gained $55."  As much as people complain about inequality, almost nobody asks if Fed policy in general, not just QE, is behind the rising inequality as the Fed creates serial bubbles. The left loves to point out that inequality began accelerating in 1979 (in order to blame it all on Reagan), however the dual mandate began right around that time as well, and as such began the mother of all rallies in stocks, bonds, and real estate.


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