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Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Morning Report - Awaiting the FOMC minutes

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  2125.2 0.6 0.03%
Eurostoxx Index 3663.6 -7.0 -0.19%
Oil (WTI) 58.56 0.6 0.98%
LIBOR 0.276 -0.001 -0.18%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 95.32 0.049 0.05%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.25% -0.04%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 101.4 -0.4
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 100.8 0.3
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.91

Back from the MBA Secondary Conference in NYC. Generally the mood was upbeat, although regulatory issues weighed on everyone. Lots of talk about TRID.

Markets are flattish this morning as retailers report first quarter earnings. Wal Mart missed big yesterday, while Target came in better than expected this morning. Overall, the savings from lower gas prices are not being spent - they are being saved. In the battle of the home improvement stores, the Home Despot was the winner over Lowe's this spring. 

Catching up on economic data, the NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 54 from 56. Housing Starts came in well above expectations, at 1.135 million. Building Permits rose to 1.143 million as well. So, at least housing rebounded smartly after a tough Q1, however most other indicators (especially manufacturing-related) have not. Blame the dollar. 

Chart: Housing Starts: 2000-Present



Mortgage Applications fell 1.5% last week, according to the MBA. Purchases fell 3.7% while refis were up .3%. 

This afternoon, we will get the FOMC minutes. Of particular interest will be any mention of the huge bond market volatility we have been seeing, particularly emanating from Europe. Also look for their characterization of the first quarter weakness and the lack of a meaningful rebound. Janet Yellen will also be speaking at 1:00 pm EST. We could see some volatility in rates early this afternoon. 

It is no secret that Bernie Sanders hates, hates, hates the financial sector. He has a new plan to fund free college education with a special tax on Wall Street. This is just election fodder to pull Hillary to the left and it is going absolutely nowhere. 

Angela Merkel has given Greece until the end of the month to reach a deal with its creditors. 

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