| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 2106.0 | -3.3 | -0.16% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 3598.1 | -34.8 | -0.96% |
| Oil (WTI) | 60.63 | 1.7 | 2.88% |
| LIBOR | 0.28 | 0.001 | 0.36% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 95.37 | -0.112 | -0.12% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.14% | 0.00% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 102.3 | 0.1 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 101.1 | -0.1 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 3.84 |
Stocks are lower this morning on economic data. Bonds and MBS are getting slammed.
Bonds in the US have been buffeted by the volatility in the European bond markets as optimism and pessimism over a bailout wax and wane. The German Bund is now trading at 51 basis points after hitting 7.5 bps about two weeks ago. The snapback has been vicious and caught a lot of people on the wrong side of the boat.
Chart: German 10 year bond yield:
The ISM Services Index rose to 57.8 in April from 56.5 in March. These are strong numbers, which should bode well for the jobs report on Friday.
Economic optimism fell, however from 51.3 to 49.7. While a lot of things figure into these sentiment statistics, they are very sensitive to gasoline prices.
Oil is back over $60 a barrel as the supply glut begins to dry up. This could bump up the inflation numbers a bit, which would be good news for the Fed, as long as it is stays muted and inflation holds around 2%. If it goes above, get ready for all the "The Fed is Behind The Curve" handwringing. That would be Hillary's nightmare scenario.
Speaking of inflation, Warren Buffet would short the 30 year bond if he had a cost-effective way to do it.
Note David Einhorn took aim at fracking (and specifically Pioneer Natural Resources) with regard to profitability at a value investing conference.
Banks generally eased credit slightly last month, according to the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey. In resi, it looks like the biggest change was the easing of overlays for government / conforming loans.
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