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Monday, November 10, 2014

Morning Report - The week ahead

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  2027.9 1.9 0.09%
Eurostoxx Index 3076.4 11.5 0.37%
Oil (WTI) 79.31 0.7 0.84%
LIBOR 0.233 0.001 0.43%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 87.43 -0.216 -0.25%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.31% 0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.5 0.3
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.6 0.0
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.99

Markets are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.

The week after the jobs report is typically slow data-wise, and this week is no exception. Bonds will be closed tomorrow for Veteran's Day. The most important data will probably be retail sales on Friday. 

On Thursday, we will get the JOLTs job openings, numbers which are at boom-time levels. The labor market seems to be at an interesting place, with the leading indictators (initial jobless claims, job openings) signalling strength, while the lagging indicators (labor force participation rate, wage inflation) are still recessionary. 


Luxury builder Toll Brothers pre-announced good numbers, as deliveries increased 22% in units and 29% in dollars. ASPs increased to $747,000 from $732,000 last quarter and $703,000 a year ago. Signed contracts rose 10% in units and 16% in dollars. Clearly things are still hitting on all cylinders at the luxury end of the market. Tomorrow, we will hear from D.R. Horton, who is increasing their focus on starter homes in anticipation of the return of the first-time homebuyer. 

Obama has nominated Loretta Lynch to succeed Eric Holder as Attorney General. She will likely face questioning from two different directions. Republicans will want to press her on her support of "disparate impact" theory of discrimination, which says that if the numbers don't reflect the population, the firm is guilty of discrimination, no questions asked. Even if they didn't intend to discriminate. Note that this theory has been struck down by the courts and is probably headed to the Supreme Court. Democrats will press her on prosecuting actual bankers, not the banks themselves. The left is still seething that DOJ hasn't gotten a scalp from the financial crisis. Angelo, call your lawyers...

Job cuts continue in mortgage-land, with JP Morgan cutting 7,000 jobs

The Black Knight Financial Services Mortgage Monitor is out. We saw a big jump in foreclosures starts, up to 91k, however delinquencies are down in a big way. Interestingly, the biggest jump in foreclosure starts are repeat foreclosure starts, which I take to mean loans that were modified under HAMP, which ended up going back into foreclosure. So much for the "avoidable foreclosure" theory. 

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