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Friday, November 7, 2014

Morning Report - Jobs Day

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  2031.0 3.0 0.15%
Eurostoxx Index 3080.1 -22.0 -0.71%
Oil (WTI) 78.46 0.5 0.71%
LIBOR 0.232 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 87.96 -0.056 -0.06%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.39% 0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.3 0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.3 0.1
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.2

Markets are higher after a mixed jobs report. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Jobs Report data dump:
  • Nonfarm payrolls + 214k (down from 248k in Sep. 235k expected)
  • Two month revision +31k
  • Unemployment Rate 5.8% (down from 5.9% in Sep)
  • Average Weekly hours 34.6 (flat with Sep)
  • Average Hourly Earnings +.1% (Sep was flat)
  • Labor Force Participation Rate 62.8% (up from 62.7% in Sep)
So overall, it shows the labor market continues to improve, however wages are still going nowhere. 

The servicers are getting slammed this year, with Ocwen, Nationstar, and Walter leading the way. Nationstar reported numbers last night, and the stock was down 22% after hours. Walter Investment received an investigative subpeona from California, and we we are well aware of Ocwen's issues. I have not seen this affect MSR valuations yet, but it will if these state AGs start forcing these companies to sell their portfolios. 

Fannie Mae CEO Timothy Mayopoulos laid out further details on the new low downpayment program. Private Mortgage Insurance would have to cover the first 20% of loss, however which would limit the program. That said, he expects the cost of one of these mortgages to be less than the cost of a FHA loan. 


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