A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Morning Report - Productivity and costs

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  2024.4 5.7 0.28%
Eurostoxx Index 3113.6 22.0 0.71%
Oil (WTI) 77.97 -0.7 -0.90%
LIBOR 0.232 -0.001 -0.22%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 87.75 0.307 0.35%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.36% 0.02%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.3 -0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.2 0.0
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.99

Markets are up this morning as initial jobless claims hit a new low. Bonds and MBS are down. ECB President Mario Draghi said policy makers were ready to implement further stimulus measures if economic conditions warrant, which pushed up stocks worldwide. 

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 278k, the lowest since 2000. Consumer Comfort ticked up as well. 

In other economic data, nonfarm productivity rose 2% in Q3, while unit labor costs only rose .3%. These two statistics explain both (a) the profitability of the S&P 500 and the lackluster economy. In all fairness, however raises aren't usually negotiated in the summer months, so we'll have to see if we get a big jump in Q1. 

That said, the productivity and unit labor cost numbers perfectly reflect what Tuesday's election was about - frustration that wages are going nowhere, even as productivity rises. Is the reason for this due to businesses being jerks, a lousy labor market, or technology? Depends on your politics.

Lenders got a break last Monday as a Federal district court in Washington DC ruled against HUD's disparate impact claim, which says a lender is guilty of lending discrimination if the numbers don't match the population, even if they had no intent to discriminate. This was a very left-wing take on discrimination, and was intended to create lending quotas. Next stop is the Supreme Court, which might be the end of the whole thing.

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