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Monday, April 21, 2014

Morning Report - NVR disappoints

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1862.5 4.6 0.25%
Eurostoxx Index 3155.8 16.6 0.53%
Oil (WTI) 104.4 0.0 0.05%
LIBOR 0.226 -0.002 -0.88%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.89 0.042 0.05%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.70% -0.02%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105 -0.6
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.1 0.2
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.36

Markets are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at .2, in line with expectations. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators rebounded to .8. Perhaps this year will be the end of the "recovery summer" running joke.

Thursday's big increase in rates were a bit of a head-scratcher, given that there were no big economic reports on Thursday. Chalk it up to low liquidity in the markets as senior traders took the day off and instructed their junior traders to stay out of the way.

Lots of earnings this week, with some of the market heavyweights reporting. On Thursday, we will hear from homebuilders D.R. Horton and PulteGroup. Hopefully they will give some insight on how the spring selling season is shaping up. 

Washington-DC based homebuilder NVR reported lower than expected earnings, partially based on a reversal of some previously recognized tax deductions.  Orders fell 5%, while backlog was down 3% on a unit basis but up 4% on a dollar basis. Gross margins increased to 18% as average selling prices rose 5%. NVR doesn't do conference calls, so we'll have to wait until Thursday to get some more color on the market environment. The stock is down 6.5%. 

Ocwen is putting all future mortgage servicing deals on hold, after attracting the scrutiny of the New York Attorney General's office. Everything is on hold until people figure out what Schneiderman wants.

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