A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Morning Report - Existing Home Sales still on the weak side

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1867.5 3.1 0.17%
Eurostoxx Index 3192.4 36.6 1.16%
Oil (WTI) 102.9 -1.5 -1.45%
LIBOR 0.229 0.003 1.22%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.83 -0.113 -0.14%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.74% 0.02%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.2 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104 -0.1
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.27

Markets are higher this morning on a blizzard of earnings reports and a couple major M&A transactions in the pharma space. Bonds and MBS are down.

The FHFA Home Price Index rose .6% month over month in February and is up just shy of 7% for the year. The FHFA Index only looks at homes with a conforming mortgage, so it is more of a central tendency index than, say Case Shiller.

Existing Home Sales were basically flat in March, coming in at 4.6 million. The median home price was up 7.4% year over year. Days on Market fell to 55 days from 62. First time homebuyers increased to 30% of transactions and all cash deals increased to 33%. For LOs that are discouraged by the death of the refi business, there is a bright side to these numbers. Investors are becoming less of a force in the market and the first time homebuyer is becoming more of one. Historically, existing home sales have been in the 5.2 million range. If we get back to historical run rates and all cash buyers go back to their historical levels of 20%, that means the gettable purchase business will increase 35%. (5.2 million * 80% with a mortgage) = 4.16 million gettable loans. Current situation: 4.6 million * 67% = 3.08 million. 

Chart:  Existing Home Sales:




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