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Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Morning Report - more credit availability in the jumbo space

Vital Statistics:

LastChangePercent
S&P Futures 1850.25.20.28%
Eurostoxx Index3191.814.10.44%
Oil (WTI)102.60.00.00%
LIBOR0.2280.0000.11%
US Dollar Index (DXY)79.790.0380.05%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield2.71%0.03% 
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA105.4-0.2
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA104.1-0.5
RPX Composite Real Estate Index200.7-0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage4.48

Stocks are up on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down. Alcoa kicked off earnings season last night with better than expected EPS.

Mortgage applications fell 1.6% last week. Purchases rose 2.7% but refis fell 4.9%. Refis are now roughly half of all mortgages after being over 60% not too long ago. The 30 year fixed rate mortgage was unch'd during the week. 

Later on today, we will get the minutes from the March FOMC meeting. There could be some volatility in the bond market around this release, so be careful. The street will be looking for the color on the "as soon as six months" statement - is it just one lone hawk who thinks we could start tightening in just over a year, or do other voting members share that sentiment?

Mortgage credit availability expanded in March, according to the MBA. Availability is expanding in the jumbo space. While credit availability is better than a year ago, we are still far away from any sense of normalcy, let along the go-go days of 2005-2007. The fact that the availability in credit is really only expanding in the jumbo space must be giving the CRA junkies in Washington conniptions. 

Good backgrounder on the non-bank servicers. The pace of growth of the non-bank servicing sector is "scaring regulators, who see it as a threat to their four-year effort to improve how banks handle loans in default." Hence NYS AG Eric Schneiderman has blocked a MSR deal between Wells and Ocwen. Not sure why the New York State Attorney General thinks banking regulation is his bailiwick, but I guess he is following the model Spitzer used - bash the financial sector all the way to the Governor's Mansion. 

Speaking of banks, it looks like they are going to need to raise $68 billion in capital to meet stricter standards, although most banks will likely meet the new standards by retaining earnings or restructuring some assets. We will hear from Wells and JP Morgan later this week.

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