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Friday, March 21, 2014

Morning Report - risk spreads back to bubble levels

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1869.8 3.7 0.20%
Eurostoxx Index 3093.3 4.4 0.14%
Oil (WTI) 99.25 0.3 0.35%
LIBOR 0.233 -0.001 -0.32%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.17 -0.023 -0.03%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.78% 0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.8 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.6 -0.1
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.42

Markets are up small on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down small. There is no economic data this morning.

KB Home sold $400 million of 5 year senior notes at 4.75%. The proceeds are going to be used to acquire land. I think we can expect to see more bond issuance as companies take advantage of low rates and tight spreads. Bond investors are paying up for paper at the moment, as spreads are about as tight as they have ever been. This means that (a) the bond market is vulnerable to shocks and (b) we could experience some turbulence as rates start rising. Look at the chart below - high yield spreads are back at bubble levels. 


Existing home sales fell yesterday, as professional investors begin to balk at high prices. According to RealtyTrac, institutional investors bought 44,087 properties in Q4, down from a peak of 60,648 in the second quarter of last year. As the labor market improves, we should see a return to a more normal level of cash vs mortgage buyers. 



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