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Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Morning Report - NFIB Small Business Pessimism Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1669.2 1.5 0.09%
Eurostoxx Index 2919.6 -3.5 -0.12%
Oil (WTI) 103.5 0.4 0.43%
LIBOR 0.244 0.000 0.10%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.98 0.034 0.04%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.65% 0.02%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.5 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.9 -0.1
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.27

Markets are flattish this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down. Earnings season kicks off after the close with Alcoa. 

China and Japan are warning the US not to default on its debt. China holds just under 1.3 trillion of US Treasuries. Beijing warned that "the clock is ticking" and urged Washington to get its act together to "ensure the safety of the Chinese investments." The White House says it is open to a short-term increase in the debt ceiling, which may allow us to kick the debt ceiling can to the end of the year while we figure out the government shutdown. However, both sides are dug in, with the White House insisting on a clean debt ceiling increase, and John Boehner insisting that some spending cuts have to be a part of any deal.

Corelogic is reporting there were 48,000 completed foreclosures in August, down 34% year-over-year and up 1.3% from July.The shadow inventory is estimated to be 1.9 million homes. 2.1 million mortgages, or 5.3% of all mortgages are seriously delinquent, the lowest level since November 2008. The Northeast, Florida, and Nevada have the highest foreclosed inventory.

Corelogic also released its 2013 mortgage fraud report. They estimated that $10.5 billion of mortgage applications had fraudulent information in the first half of 2013. The mortgage fraud index decreased 5.6% nationally on a year-over-year basis. They identify six types of fraud - employment, identity, income, occupancy, property, and undisclosed debt. Income fraud is the highest risk, while property fraud is the lowest. 

The National Federation of Independent Businesses say that optimism fell in September as pessimism about future business conditions increased. Small business optimism is still well below pre-crisis levels. Keep this in mind when you start hearing blowout earnings numbers from the S&P 500 companies. Many of them are overseas earning stories and you shouldn't draw too many conclusions from their strength. 

Chart: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index


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