A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Morning Report - What a difference a year makes

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1462.4 -2.8 -0.19%
Eurostoxx Index 2688.7 -12.9 -0.48%
Oil (WTI) 93.32 0.0 0.04%
LIBOR 0.303 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.86 0.085 0.11%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.80% -0.03%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 191.7 0.3

Markets are weaker this morning after the World Bank cut its global growth forecast.  Goldman and JP Morgan both reported better than expected earnings. Mortgage applications rose 15% last week and the CPI showed that inflation remains under control. Industrial production rose .3% and capacity utilization rose to 78.8%.  Bonds and MBS are up.

The National Association  Homebuilders Confidence index held at 47 in January, the highest level since April of 2006. A reading of 50 represents the point where builders view conditions as neutral. Conditions improved in all areas of the country, with the West performing the best, while the Midwest and Northeast performing the worst. This is the second sentiment report that has the "what a difference a year makes" theme.

The CoreLogic Home Price Index rose 7.4% YOY in Nov 2012. This is the largest gain since May of 2006.   Excluding distressed sales, home price increased nationally by 6.7%.  December's gain is forecast to be down .5% MOM (reflecting the typical seasonal pattern) and will be up 8.4% YOY. Mark Fleming, the Chief Economist made a point about QM - "that the recently released Qualified Mortgage rules issued by the CFPB are not expected to significantly restrict credit availability relative to today."  I am sure Cordray is breathing a sigh of relief on that one... the point of the QM rule was to expand credit.

Bank of America is intent on growing the mortgage business again after a hasty retreat in 2011. Of course this meant they missed the mother of all refinancing booms. They exited the wholesale business and basically ceded the market leader position to Wells Fargo. It also signals that they believe the worst is behind them with respect to Countrywide.

It is looking more and more like Republicans will not force a showdown on the debt ceiling (though "clean" debt ceiling increases have been rare in the past).  The polls aren't with them and the politics aren't there. Republicans will probably save spending cut demands for the sequester and the continuing resolution.

It looks like the case against Stevie Cohen has hit a wall.

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