A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:
Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1446.6 -5.3 -0.37%
Eurostoxx Index 2553.6 -23.5 -0.91%
Oil (WTI) 91.84 -1.1 -1.13%
LIBOR 0.367 -0.002 -0.54%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.59 0.265 0.33%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.72% -0.03%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.5 -0.2  

Markets are lower after a disappointing German business sentiment survey and some German officials criticized Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy's foot-dragging on an aid package.  The financial industry jobs bleed continues - after BOA announced it would cut 16,000 jobs late last week, RBS is cutting another 300 and Nomura is reorganizing (read cutting jobs) in its Asian Finance Unit. According to Olivetree financials strategist, this is just the start. Bonds and MBS are up.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index deteriorated in August, which was the 6th consecutive month activity was below trend. The number came in at - .87, which is below the - .7 mark.  If the 3 month moving average falls below .7, it typically means a recession has already started. FWIW, employment was not the big driver - it was production.



Lennar reported better than expected sales and profits this morning. Stuart Miller characterized the housing market as "The housing market has stabilized and the recovery is well underway.  Low mortgage rates, affordable home prices, increased buyer confidence and an extremely favorable rent-to-own comparison are driving growth in each of our markets.  Additionally, reduced foreclosures and declining distressed home inventory are further contributing to the improvement in the housing market."  Granted, the homeboys are the biggest cheerleaders of real estate there is, but still...  BTW, KB Homes was up 16.5% on Friday after it reported a good quarter.  LEN is up 4% pre-open.

After the fact, Shelia Bair thinks Hank Paulson's bazooka was too big.

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