A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Morning Report 9/18/12

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1453.2 -0.8 -0.06%
Eurostoxx Index 2563.5 -20.1 -0.78%
Oil (WTI) 95.89 -0.7 -0.76%
LIBOR 0.379 -0.002 -0.53%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.08 0.073 0.09%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.79% -0.05%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.3 0.7  

Markets are lower on the back of a decline in European stocks and a profit warning from Fed Ex. The current account deficit came in lower than expected and foreign purchases of US assets jumped to 67B in July from 9B in June.  Bonds and MBS are stronger.

The National Association of Homebuilders Market Index rose to the highest level since early 2007, the latest sign that things are getting better for the homeboys. The Homebuilder ETF (XHB) has been on a tear since the beginning of summer, rallying 21%, but is still 45% off of its bubble highs.

Chart:  SPDR S&P Homebuilder's Index ETF (XHB)



Funny tweet from Bill Gross:  Central banks are where bad bonds go to die. The article goes on to discuss whether to be long Treasuries.  IMO - obama win, bond bullish, Romney win, bond bearish.

Bloomberg discusses the foreclosure backlog in New Jersey. The upshot - shadow inventory is decreasing everywhere except for the Northeast where judicial foreclosures are slowing the pace of foreclosures and creating a backlog. This is primarily affecting NY, NJ, CT, and PA. Which is why prices are rebounding in Phoenix and still falling in Fairfield County.  Wasn't the plan in Washington to hold foreclosures off the market in the hope that less selling pressure means prices hold up?  So much for that theory....


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