A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1399.7 -1.9 -0.14%
Eurostoxx Index 2425.9 -6.4 -0.26%
Oil (WTI) 92.93 -0.5 -0.54%
LIBOR 0.435 -0.002 -0.46%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.68 0.199 0.24%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.76% 0.02%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 190.4 0.3  

Another ho-hum market day with a lot of economic data, but not much action. The CPI showed inflation remains in check, and we had a mixed bag of industrial reports - with positive industrial production and capacity utilization numbers offset by a disappointing Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The bond market continues to sell off and the 10-year bond futures appear to have fallen below the 147 - 153 range they have been stuck in since late May. MBS are down 4 or 5 ticks.

Funds are releasing their 13-Fs right now, which is the list of their holdings. One filing that is always popular is Berkshire Hathaway's because a lot of investors like the idea of piggybacking Warren's trades, and also changes can give insight into what Warren is thinking.  In the latest filing, he reduced his exposure to defensive names, like Proctor and Gamble, Kraft, and Johnny John. He increased his holding in Wells and initiated stakes in a couple names in the energy sector - National Oilwell Varco and Phillips 66. It is hard to read much into the report - net equity exposure dropped, but they seem to be taking a more constructive posture towards the economy.

If you are a property seller, Taxmageddon may have some nasty surprises for you. Theoretically, this should pull some sales from 2013 back into 2012. Which means that Fall could be a little better, while the Spring selling season could be a little weaker.

Finally, the National Association of Homebuilders Confidence Index increased in August as the hot rental market is brightening the spirits of the homebuilders. While absolute levels are still depressed relative to historical standards, the rebound has been swift.

Chart:  NAHB Market Index:


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