A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Monday, August 13, 2012

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1400.9 -1.5 -0.11%
Eurostoxx Index 2435.3 12.1 0.50%
Oil (WTI) 93.51 0.6 0.69%
LIBOR 0.435 -0.003 -0.57%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.31 -0.244 -0.30%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.66% 0.00%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 189.6 0.5  

The dog days of summer typically bring markets with no real news and no real motion. Today is one of those days. The equity futures are flat, and bonds / MBS are more or less flat as well.

The big news of the weekend was the choice of Ryan for VP.  Is this market-moving?  Not in the least.

Joseph Stiglitz and Mark Zandi are endorsing Senator Jeff Merkley's plan to establish a trust to buy underwater, but performing, mortgages and refinance them. Of course there are large questions unanswered: At what price will these mortgages be bought?  And who will do the refinancing? If the plan envisions private lenders refinancing underwater mortgages, how does the government propose to deal with put-back risk?

Here is another idea:  Collateral Substitution. If you want to move, you can substitute a house of equal or higher value for the collateral. Suppose you live in a rust-belt city, with limited job prospects and you want to move to North Dakota, where the energy jobs are.  You would be able to sell your current home without having to repay the loan, and then use the proceeds to buy a new home in ND.

Of course, if housing has already bottomed, then perhaps the correct thing to do is absolutely nothing and let the market recover on its own.

We haven't talked about Facebook for a while. Suffice it to say that the stock didn't live up to the pre-IPO hype. Starting Thursday, the lockups start expiring, which means pre-IPO investors and employees who were restricted will now be able to sell.

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