A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1306.1 -2.7 -0.21%
Eurostoxx Index 2134.4 -9.1 -0.42%
Oil (WTI) 82.42 -0.2 -0.24%
LIBOR 0.468 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.17 0.107 0.13%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.59% 0.00%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 179.5 0.4  


Markets are weaker after Moody's downgraded Spain to one notch over junk and initial jobless claims came in higher than expected. The chart suggests that the trend in initial jobless claims may be changing. The CPI remained muted. Bonds and MBS are slightly lower.

FHFA released its annual report to Congress on the state of the GSEs. The average 2011 mortgage in their portfolio is very high quality - Average LTV < 70%, Average FICO in the mid 70s. The worst stuff (the no-doc and IO loans are finally gone).  FHFA characterizes the GSEs as "stabilized" but not "sound."  Fannie and Fred guarantee roughly $100 billion per month and account for 75% of every mortgage originated in 2011. They owe Treasury $187.5 billion.

The NAHB has listed 80 metro areas in their Improving Market Index for June. To be included in the index, the are must have shown improvements in housing permits, employment, and house prices for at least six consecutive months. This is a drop from May where 100 areas were in the index. Map.

The consensus seems to be that Jamie Dimon did well yesterday, by showing contrition where necessary, yet pushing back when he had to as well. The business press seems to believe the Senators went too easy on Dimon.

In keeping with the "where is the inventory" thread I have been discussing the past few days, here is another: Private Equity has raised more than $6 billion to buy and rent foreclosed homes, yet have only deployed about $2 billion of it. Analysts are concerned that political pressure out of Washington is delaying the bulk sales. Maybe someone in Washington wants to goose the housing indices a little bit. He may end up being too clever by half - when the ducks are quacking, you gotta feed them or they go away...

Chart:  Initial Jobless Claims:


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