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Monday, June 4, 2012

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1277.0 3.1 0.24%
Eurostoxx Index 2088.7 20.0 0.97%
Oil (WTI) 82.46 -0.8 -0.93%
LIBOR 0.468 0.001 0.21%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.74 -0.152 -0.18%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.50% 0.05%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 177.6 0.3  


S&P futures are up 3 points after having been down 12 points in the overnight session. A drop in Euro sovereign yields seems to account for the better tone. China's non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 55.2 in May from 56.1 in April, indicating that their economy is decelerating. The 10-year yield has increased to 1.5% and mortgage backed securities are down a tick.

This week will be a relatively data-light week, in contrast to last week (especially Friday). However, there will be lots of Fed-speak all week and investors will be parsing each statement for further clues regarding QE.  It may turn out that the Fed conducts Operation Twist by purchasing MBS instead of Treasuries.

One of the reasons why this recovery has proven to be so unsatisfying has been the lack of construction activity, which usually leads the economy out of a recession. The Atlantic has a chart that shows construction jobs as a percent of total jobs is at levels not seen since 1946.

Laurie Goodman of Amherst Securities weighs in on how regulators are creating a credit crunch.

Chart:  Construction jobs as a percent of total jobs:


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