A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Monday, June 22, 2015

Morning Report - Existing Home Sales increase

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  2115.8 18.1 0.86%
Eurostoxx Index 3545.9 90.1 2.61%
Oil (WTI) 59.32 -0.3 -0.49%
LIBOR 0.281 0.001 0.18%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 94.11 0.023 0.02%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.33% 0.07%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 101.2 -0.4
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 99.7 -0.4
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.99

Markets are higher this morning after the Greek government offered a new proposal to end the standoff. Bonds and MBS are down

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved slightly in May to -.17. The 3 month moving average was also negative, which means the economy is growing a little below trend. Production and Consumption were negative, while employment was positive. 

Merger mania in the health insurance space: Cigna rejected an offer from Anthem, and Aetna supposedly approached Humana. Insurers are looking to cut costs.

Existing Home Sales improved 5.1% to 5.35 million in May, according to the NAR. This is the highest since May 2009.  The first time homebuyer accounted for 32% of sales, up from 30% in April, but still below its historical average of about 40%. All cash transactions were flat at 24%, while days on market ticked up slightly to 40 days. The median price of a home rose 7.9% to $228,700. This puts the median home price to median income ratio at 4.3x, which is again stretched and well outside the historical norm of 3.2x - 3.6x. 

In political news, the Supreme Court is supposed to rule on King vs Burwell, the case which decides whether states that did not set up exchanges are eligible for federal subsidies. This will dominate the news headlines in Washington if the Court decides the language in the law needs to be changed. 

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