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Monday, June 1, 2015

Morning Report - Bonds could have a bumpy ride this week

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  2112.4 6.4 0.30%
Eurostoxx Index 3584.8 14.0 0.39%
Oil (WTI) 59.88 -0.4 -0.70%
LIBOR 0.284 0.001 0.35%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 97.17 0.266 0.27%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.11% -0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 102.3 0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 101.3 0.0
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.9

Stocks are higher this morning as Europe and Greece work towards a deal. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Personal Income rose 0.4% in April, ahead of the 0.3% estimate, but personal spending was flat as people used income gains to pay down debt. The year-over-year growth rate is the lowest in 5 years

The core PCE index (the Fed's preferred measure of inflation) rose 0.1% in April and is up 1.2% year over year. Low inflation remains a persistent thorn in the Fed's side and will provide a ready excuse to postpone rate normalization. 

Construction spending rose 2.2% in April, which came in well above expectations. March was revised upward from -0.6% to +0.5%. These are month-over-month numbers - on a year over year basis, construction is up 4.8%. Residential construction continues to lag.

The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 52.8 from 51.5 in April. The manufacturing economy continues to perform relatively well. 

Greece owes the IMF 300 million this Friday, and as of now they have no way to pay for it. Greece is demanding that the ECB and IMF recognize that Greece has shifted to the left, however so far Europe isn't budging. Between the Greek saga and the jobs report on Friday, bonds could exhibit some real volatility this week. 


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