A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Friday, October 24, 2014

Morning Report - should we fear another real estate bubble?

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1943.4 -2.7 -0.14%
Eurostoxx Index 3028.3 -16.0 -0.52%
Oil (WTI) 80.84 -1.3 -1.52%
LIBOR 0.233 0.002 0.95%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 85.71 -0.138 -0.16%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.26% -0.02%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.7 0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.6 0.0
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.98

Markets are flattish on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat as well.

New Home sales rose .2% in September, to 467k while August sales were revised down in a big way, from 504k to 466k. 

PulteGroup announced earnings last night which matched the Street. Revenues increased by 4%, driven by an 8% increase in prices and a 4% drop in deliveries. Pulte, which targets the first time homebuyer, applauded the new moves by FHFA to increase access to credit. However, not all builders are on board. Luxury builder Toll Brother founder Robert Toll characterized the proposed loosening of credit standards as "a really dumb-ass idea." So there you have it. 

That said, I think fears that loosening credit standards will fuel another real estate bubble are overblown. Bubbles are psychological phenomenons where people believe an asset can only go in one direction - up. People thought that way about stocks in the late 90s, and about real estate in the mid 00s. If there is going to be a next bubble, it will be in sovereign debt, not real estate. The baby boom has plowed into Treasuries after losing their shirts in stocks and real estate. And investors can play Treasuries through 2x and 3x levered ETFs. We won't see another real estate bubble in our lifetimes, but our grandkids might. 

Amazon.com reported lousy earnings yesterday, and gave a disappointing holiday forecast. Given that back-to-school was nothing all that great, this isn't surprise. 

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