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Friday, September 16, 2016

Morning Report: inflation comes in hotter than expected

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P Futures  2134.0 -4.0
Eurostoxx Index 338.7 0.3
Oil (WTI) 42.9 -1.0
US dollar index 87.0 0.5
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.69%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.54

Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.

Slow news day.

Inflation at the consumer level came in a little hotter than expected, with the consumer price index rising 0.2% MOM and 1.1% YOY. Ex-food and energy, it rose 0.3% and is up 2.3% YOY. This should not have much (if any) effect on probabilities for a Sep rate hike. 

The Feds suggested a $14 billion fine for Deutsche Bank for bubble-era mortgage backed securities sins. Deutsche has no intention for settling anywhere near that number. The stock is down 7.2% in Frankfurt.

Yesterday, Donald Trump discussed taxes and growth. He is proposing to simplify the individual tax code, and to cut corporate taxes to closer to our competitors. He is also promising to tame the regulatory state, and between the tax cuts and regulatory relief he is forecasting GDP to grow at 3.5% versus our sub 2% current growth. Of course the latest scandal from Wells Fargo makes regulatory relief a more difficult argument to make. 

The MR will be spotty next week as I will be on jury duty..


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